Loss of Pablo Rodriguez could leave Liberals ‘heading towards an iceberg’ in Quebec

OTTAWA — Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez is expected to launch a campaign for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party soon, Liberal sources say, leaving the party without a vital operator in the province.

Nothing is set in stone yet, but Rodriguez is assessing the level of support he could obtain from the QLP members and caucus, according to sources familiar with his thinking.

At a press conference Thursday, Rodriguez confirmed he has been approached “by a lot of people to go back to the party where it all started for me years ago.”

“It’s a privilege, and an honour to be approached by so many people, he said in his first public appearance since the news broke last Sunday. That’s my only comments.”

His office declined an interview request from the National Post and did not want to comment on this article. A source close to him said there isn’t “any timetable at this point” for an announcement.

“Listen, if he does this and he leaves the Trudeau team, it’s certainly a loss for the Trudeau team, because he’s been a really good minister,” said Jonathan Kalles, a former senior advisor to both Rodriguez and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Within Liberal circles, Rodriguez is described as a skilled negotiator and a top recruiter of potential candidates. He was first elected in 2004 and lost in 2011 in the NDP’s orange wave that hit Quebec. For four years he was the Liberal party’s point person in Quebec, working to recruit candidates for the 2015 election, where he won back his Honoré-Mercier seat.

With Liberals now struggling to recruit candidates, even in the province where they have shown the most resilience, while poll numbers crater across the rest of the country, losing one of their most prominent ministers could spell trouble for the party.

“He’s a big fish, absolutely, in terms of the Quebec caucus and so, it would be a major loss from the perspective of the Liberal Party of Canada in Quebec. The fact that we are talking about this is not a good sign,” said Daniel Béland, the director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.

Jonathan Kalles and Liberal insiders interviewed for this article were quick to point out that the party has a solid team in Quebec and strong ministers that could take over the lieutenant job in the province.

But others are more concerned that key organizers would follow Rodriguez and migrate to the QLP, which is not affiliated with the federal party.

“It would definitely leave a void,” said one source.

Daniel Béland agrees and adds that if Rodriguez were to run, it would send a message to his supporters that it is increasingly difficult to believe that the federal Liberals can turn the ship around.

“They are heading towards an iceberg… There’s already pessimism. That would make the mood, even, I would say, darker,” he said.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois are leading the polls with around 33 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 26. Meanwhile, Conservatives, who are third in the province at 24 per cent, are watching what is happening in awe.

“When the government and Mr. Trudeau’s top lieutenant in Quebec talks about leaving, I think that says a lot about the state of the Liberal troops,” said deputy house leader and Quebec MP Luc Berthold earlier this week.

Sources told the National Post that Quebec Liberals are in relatively good spirits even in the aftermath of the party’s shocking loss in the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection and national polls that put them 18 points behind the Tories.

They point out that Rodriguez has been in federal politics for two decades and may want to take on a new challenge.

“If he decides to run, I really don’t think it’s because he wants to jump off the ship, but rather because he would want a new challenge,” said one Liberal MP.

According to Jonathan Kalles, who is now a counsel at McMillan LLP in Montreal, Rodriguez has been able to build strong relationships with the Legault government and achieve some serious work. For example, he was involved in negotiating deals on transport, child care and housing.

“I’m still trying to figure out how it fits with what I know of him, what his talents are, skills are, and how that fits with the role of provincial party leader and ultimately, a potential future premier,” said Jonathan Kalles who underlined how passionate his former boss is for regions outside of Montreal.

Several sources were keen to point out how “terrific” Rodriguez would be as a leader, especially in an election where Quebec independence could be a hot-button issue. The Parti Québécois is leading in all polls and is eager to debate the province’s future within the federation in the 2026 provincial election. Historically, the Liberals often thrive when independence is an electoral issue in Quebec.

In the House of Commons, Rodriguez is known for his passionate defence of Quebec’s place within Canada. He has often directly attacked the Bloc Québécois for failing to support Quebecers and on the language issue, arguing that more people in Quebec speak French than ever before.

“I spoke Spanish at home, but at school, at work, when playing hockey and everywhere on the street, I spoke French. This proves that Bill 101 is working. The Bloc Québécois can shout and get angry all it wants, but the fact is that more people are speaking French,” he said in 2023. Rodriguez, born in Argentina, was involved in the QLP’s youth commission before joining the federal party.

Only one candidate, Denis Coderre, has officially launched his bid for the QLP leadership race. Coderre, who served as a Liberal MP alongside Pablo Rodriguez for years, said the timing was not right for his “chum Pablo.”

The Quebec Liberals will choose their new leader in June 2025.

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